More than a decade after war broke out in Juba, South Sudan’s road to peace remains uncertain
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OTTAWA — Renewed clashes between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and Vice-President Riek Machar, along with the deployment of Ugandan troops into South Sudan, have reignited fears that the country’s fragile peace agreement is at risk of collapse. The escalation in Upper Nile has intensified political mistrust and raised fresh concerns about regional stability.
As of March 2025, violence in Upper Nile threatens to unravel the 2018 peace deal, pushing South Sudanese communities both at home and abroad into renewed uncertainty.
This timeline outlines the key moments of South Sudan’s conflict since 2013. Scroll through to explore how the war unfolded, how peace was negotiated, and why the promise of lasting stability still hangs in the balance.
Armed youth in Rumbek, South Sudan (2018), Photo by Randy Fath via Unsplash
A timeline of South Sudan’s Conflict and Fragile Peace Process
December 2013
Tensions erupt in Juba
Tensions erupt in Juba between President Salva Kiir and Vice-President Riek Machar. What begins as a political dispute escalates into armed conflict, dividing the military and the country largely along ethnic lines.
Fighting spreads across Bentiu, Bor, Malakal and other towns. Atrocities are reported and ethnic targeting intensifies. In early 2014, Ugandan troops are deployed to South Sudan under a bilateral agreement to support Kiir’s government. The intervention helps government forces regain territory but sparks diplomatic tensions in the region. Ceasefire efforts repeatedly collapse.
The 2015 peace deal collapses as heavy clashes erupt in Juba between government forces and opposition fighters. Machar flees the country. Violence surges and international concern escalates.
A new peace deal is signed in Khartoum: the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS). A fragile ceasefire takes hold and plans for a transitional unity government framework are introduced.
Key provisions such as army integration and permanent constitution are delayed. Localized violence increases, particularly in Jonglei, Warrap and Upper Nile states.
Elections scheduled for December 2024 are postponed to late 2026. Kiir’s administration extends the transitional period by two years. The decision fuels frustration among the public and opposition figures.
Source: International Crisis Group
March 2025
Ugandan troops deployed
Clashes erupt between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and Vice-President Riek Machar in Upper Nile.
Machar is placed under house arrest by government forces, leading to heightened tensions and concerns over the stability of the 2018 peace agreement.
Ugandan military officials announce the deployment of special forces to Juba to “secure” the city; however, South Sudanese authorities decline to confirm this presence. Analysts warn that these developments could signal a potential collapse of the peace deal.
As South Sudan approaches the 14th anniversary of its independence in July, the path forward remains uncertain. Delayed reforms, political mistrust and foreign involvement have cast doubt on the viability of the peace process.
How can South Sudan break the cycle of conflict and build a united future?
If you have ideas, solutions or perspectives on the way forward, we invite you to share them. Add your voice to the conversation and help shape a different narrative for South Sudan.
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